Causes and Effects of My Disturbing Little Book

Abstract

Review and reflection indicate that no more than 5% of what was written in the 1954 book entitled, Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction (Meehl, 1984), needs to be retracted 30 years later. If anything, these retractions would result in the book's being more actuarial than it was. Seven factors appear to account for the failure of mental health professionals to apply in practice the strong and clearly supported empirical generalizations demonstrating the superiority of actuarial over clinical prediction.