Accuracy of Psychologists' Short-Term Predictions of Future Criminal Behavior Among Juveniles

ABSTRACT

This study analyzed the accuracy of predictions of criminality as a measure of future violent behavior by two psychologists at a juvenile correctional facility. The purpose of the study was to look at how effectively predictions of future dangerousness could be made under certain conditions. While other studies have looked at how accurately predictions of violence could be made for large populations, this study looked at whether a subgroup within a general population could accurately be labeled as very likely to reoffend violently. A comparison between the accuracy of the psychologists∗ prediction of future dangerousness and a sample of the institution population was made. The results indicated that the psychologists accurately identified a subpopulation significantly more likely to engage in future acts of violence within a one-year follow-up period and were able to select a group significantly more likely to reofTend than the general population.