Predicting “Survival” in the Community Among Persistent and Serious Juvenile Offenders

ABSTRACT

This study of 244 adolescents, aged ten to seventeen years, was designed to examine the predictors of number of days persons survived in the community without being returned to the Arkansas Division of Youth Services. as well as of whether or not they returned. Unstandardized regression (OLS) coefficients indicate that persons remain in the community 41.3 fewer days with each additional prior commitment, and males remain in the community 29.1 fewer days than do females. Moreover, these two predictors together account for 19 percent of the variance in number of days survived in the community. Logistic regression of significant predictors indicate that the odds of return to DYS are increased 13.5 by prior commitments, 3.35 by carrying a weapon, 2.38 for those neglected or abused by parents, 2.27 for those with peers present at the time of their committing offense, 2.03 for gang members, 1.75 for males (versus females), 1.68 for those whose mother abuses substances, 1.63 for those with poor parental relationships, 1.41 for those who are not residing in a home with two parents, and 1.40 for persons of color (versus white youth). Implications of the findings for intervention are discussed.

Key Words:

• Recidivism
• juvenile offenders
• seriousness progression