A Seasonal and Policy Sensitive Simulation Model for Projection of Costs for Residential Placement Average Daily Populations Incorporating Expenditure and Budget Data

Abstract

Per diem residential placements require payment to a provider for services rendered according to daily cost. Many state/local human service agencies use these resources to provide a continuum of care for offender treatment. This paper presents a method for projecting both cost and utilization via a seasonal/policy sensitive simulation model for per diem placements. Historic data nationally and for the state of Maryland are also provided. The projection and mathematical models reported in the paper are applicable for current applications and computer spreadsheet files are available from the author without cost (via email).

Key Words:

• Per diem offender placements
• population projection
• policy analysis
• performance budget
• juvenile offenders
• simulation model