Victoria's Serious Sex Offenders Monitoring Act 2005: Implications for the Accuracy of Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Victoria's new Serious Sex Offenders Monitoring Act 2005 established a new regime whereby high-risk child-sex offenders can receive intensive, long-term supervision in the community post incarceration. Motivation for the new Act stemmed from increasing public outcry regarding a small number of known child-sex offenders sexually recidivating, and presumes that this recidivism should have been, and could have been, predicted and therefore prevented. The present article reviews the nature and purpose of this new sex offender legislation, and discusses some of the theoretical, practical and clinical issues in forensic psychiatric and psychological research highlighted by its implementation. The sole focus of the legislation on child-sexual offenders implies that these offences are more severe, or more recidivistic, than other sexual or violent crimes, a contention that is not wholly supported by the literature. Furthermore, research on many of the crimes specified under the Act is limited, and many questions remain unanswered regarding our ability to predict sexual recidivism, particularly in legal contexts where the consequences of false predictions are so severe. Further research on base rates and risk prediction of these specific offences, and in Australian populations, is required in order to justify the conclusions on which this law is based.