Predicting Fishing Participation and Site Choice While Accounting for Spatial Substitution, Trip Timing, and Trip Context

Abstract

We developed choice models to understand and predict the amount, timing, and locations of recreational fishing trips taken by anglers in northwestern Ontario, Canada. These models incorporated several improvements over previous models to account for complex patterns of spatial substitution among fishing sites, the context of fishing trips, and the importance of tradition and weather on the timing of trips. Joint models of fishing participation and site choice were developed for two resident populations of anglers from northern Ontario. For both populations, the three innovations provided significant improvements to the models and important information for understanding and predicting recreational fishing behaviors. The utility of the model to fisheries managers was illustrated through a management scenario that involved the restoration of walleyes Sander vitreus in a large water body. The forecasts suggested that the effect of this restoration on fishing effort at other waters was influenced by spatial proximity and temporal use at the fishing sites.