Utility of established cardiovascular disease risk score models for the 10-year prediction of disease outcomes in women

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of mortality globally. In absolute numbers, more women die from CVD than men do. CVD mortality risk differs between genders, reflecting the different distribution of modifiable risk factors and severity of CVD outcomes. This study reviews six established risk score models and their applicability to the female population. These models are assessed against two criteria: discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity, specificity and positive- and negative-predictive values are also examined. The risk score models are found to be limited in applicability, requiring recalibration beyond their study population. Relevant risk factors to predict CVD mortality for women, such as measures of obesity, physical activity, alcohol consumption, use of antihypertensive medication, chronic kidney disease and coronary artery calcium are generally not incorporated in these models.

Keywords::

• cardiovascular disease
• mortality
• prediction
• risk
• women

Financial & competing interests disclosure

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.