Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: II. Empirical investigation of long rainfall records / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: II. Recherche empirique sur de longues séries de précipitations

Abstract

Abstract In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution.

Keywords:

• design rainfall
• extreme rainfall
• generalized extreme value distribution
• Gumbel distribution
• hydrological design
• hydrological extremes
• probable maximum precipitation
• risk
• pluie de projet
• précipitation extrême
• distribution généralisée de valeurs extrêmes
• distribution de Gumbel
• dimensionnement hydrologique
• valeurs extrêmes en hydrologie
• précipitation maximum probable
• risque

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Demetris Koutsoyiannis

[email protected]