The Burden, Future Trends, And Economic Impact Of Lung Cancer In Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Background

Incidence of cancer in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. Yet, there is a dearth of research on the burden of lung cancer. This study examined the association between new cases of lung cancer and factors such as gender, age, and year of diagnosis; and forecast new cases and extrapolated future economic burden to 2030.

Methods

This a national-level cohort study that utilized the Saudi Cancer Registry data from 1999 to 2013. Multivariate regression was used; new lung cancer cases forecast and economic burden extrapolated to 20130. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of a range of epidemiologic and economic factors on the economic burden.

Results

Of the 166,497 new cancer cases (1999–2013), 3.8% was lung cancer. Males and Saudis had over threefold higher cases compared with females and non-Saudis, respectively. While the age group ≥65 years had 1.14 times or 14% increase in new cases, under-30 years had 97.2% fewer cases compared with age group 45–59. Compared with 1999, the period 2011–2013 had a 106% average increase. The years 2002–2010 registered an average 50% rise in new cases compared to 1999. New cases would rise to 1058 in 2030, an upsurge of 87% from 2013. The future economic burden was estimated at $2.49 billion in 2015 value, of which $520 million was attributable to care management and $1.97 billion in lost productivity. The economic burden for the period 2015–2030 will be $50.16 billion. The present value of this burden in 2015 values will be $34.60 billion, of which 21% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the aged-standardized rate and 5-year survival rate would account for much of the variability compared with the economic factors.

Conclusion

Findings reveal an upsurge of lung cancer burden in incidence and potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.

Keywords:

• new cases of lung cancer
• lung cancer trend
• lung cancer projection
• the economic burden
• Saudi Arabia

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to express their thanks and gratitude to King Abdullah International Medical Research Centre (KAIMRC) and Alfaisal University for the support and IRB approval (code R17/114/R).

Ethics Approval And Informed Consent

We obtained ethical approval from two independent Institutional Review Board (IRB) committees at King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Alfaisal University, Riyadh under the protocol number R17/114/R. The data were publicly available at Saudi Cancer Registry (webpage, www.chs.gov.sa), and obtained access by research proposal and IRB approval. No informed consent was necessary.

Data Availability

The data are publicly available at Saudi Cancer Registry (webpage, www.chs.gov.sa), but can only be obtained by research proposal and IRB approval.

Disclosure

All authors have no conflicts of interest to declare in this work.