The predictive capacity and additional prognostic power of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide in Chinese elderly with chronic heart failure

Abstract

Objective

This study was conducted to research the prognostic utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), compare the utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) with NT-proBNP, develop a risk-evaluation model based on NT-proBNP, assess the associations of NT-proBNP with patient characteristics, and screen for decisive factors of NT-proBNP in Chinese elderly with chronic heart failure (CHF).

Patients and methods

There were 306 patients (≥60 years) with CHF chosen as study subjects. Each one received an assessment of NT-proBNP on serum. The end point was all-cause mortality during a mean follow-up period of 471 days.

Results

Subjects had a median age of 85 (60–100) years, a median NT-proBNP of 1,743.4 pg/mL, and a median SHFS of 1.87. During the follow-up period, 104 deaths occurred. NT-proBNP was significantly related to mortality (odds ratio 1.603, 95% confidence interval 1.407–1.826; P<0.001) and the significance persisted after full adjustment (odds ratio 1.282, 95% confidence interval 1.103–1.489; P=0.001). Age, New York Heart Association class IV CHF, plasma albumin, and neutrophils/lymphocytes were also independent predictors for mortality (P<0.05 for all). NT-proBNP and the SHFS showed similar predictive capacities (0.736 versus 0.796, P=0.105). The addition of NT-proBNP to the SHFS (0.818 versus 0.796, P=0.168) generated marginal growth in the c-statistic. The model based on NT-proBNP consisting of all selected predictors in this study, including age, New York Heart Association class IV CHF, plasma albumin, neutrophils/lymphocytes, and NT-proBNP, had a moderately higher c-statistic compared with the SHFS (0.846 versus 0.796, P=0.066). NT-proBNP was bound with the SHFS (r=0.500, P<0.001). Characteristics regarding general condition, inflammation, and cardiac and renal function were the decisive factors of NT-proBNP (P<0.05 for all).

Conclusion

As a comprehensive representation of the patient characteristics described earlier, NT-proBNP values provided significant prognostic power similar to the SHFS in Chinese elderly with CHF. A novel model based on NT-proBNP could offer help for risk stratification.

Keywords:

• NT-proBNP
• prognosis
• chronic heart failure
• elderly

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by grants from the National Key Basic Research Project (2012CB517503 and 2013CB530804), the Health Special Scientific Research Subject of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (12BLZ34), and the Clinical Scientific Research Project of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital (2012FC-TSYS1021).

Disclosure

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.