The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD

Abstract

Purpose

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease.

Patients and methods

A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE).

Results

For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort.

Conclusion

The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation.

Keywords:

• heart failure
• validation studies as topics
• severity of illness index
• inpatients

Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Health (grant number: PI070945).

Disclosure

The authors developed a PREDICE-score in 2012. The authors report no other conflicts of interest in this work.