Temporal Trends and Projections of Bladder Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Purpose

Identifying disease burden and risk factors of bladder cancer and projecting its epidemiological trend in China, which can provide reference data to formulate measures for its management and prevention.

Methods

We analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of bladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicted to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We also estimated the proportion of risk factors contributing to bladder cancer DALYs. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in both sexes was calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Results

In China, the age-standardized incidence rate of bladder cancer increased from 3.3/100,000 in 1990 to 5.16/100,000 in 2019 (AAPC of 1.47), while the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate declined slightly (AAPC of −0.58 and −0.65, respectively). The burden of bladder cancer increased with age, which reached a peak over 85 years old. The main risk factor for bladder cancer was smoking, and the contribution of high fasting plasma glucose increased from 1990 to 2019, with an AAPC of 0.85 in males and 0.61 in females. We predicted total incident cases, deaths and DALYs will increase to 150,372 and 53,520 and 1043,688 in 2030, respectively. The disease burden of bladder cancer in males will consistently higher than that in females from 2020 to 2030.

Conclusion

Although mortality and DALYs rates showed downward trends, the disease burden remained heavy in China at present. More effective and long-term health policies are needed to develop for early prevention and treatment of bladder cancer.

Keywords:

• bladder cancer
• disease burden
• trend
• risk factors
• China

Abbreviations

GBD, Global Burden of Diseases; DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years; AAPC, average annual percentage change; ASRs, age-standardized rates; CI, confidence interval; ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized DALYs rate.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the works by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 collaborators.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors declared no conflict of interests in this work.

Additional information

Funding

This study was supported by the Fujian Provincial Health Technology Project (Grant number: 2018-ZQN-17).