https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8328-9393
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Abstract
Background
Understanding the temporal trends in the epidemiology of colorectal cancer (CRC) and early-onset CRC (EOCRC) in China is essential for policymakers to develop appropriate strategies to reduce the CRC burden.
Methods
The prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The incidence and mortality of CRC over the next 25 years were predicted.
Results
From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of total CRC and EOCRC significantly increased in males, with milder trends in females. In 2019, the number of people living with CRC (or EOCRC) in China was approximately 3.4 (0.59) million, which was over seven (five) times higher than that in 1990. The DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs moderately increased from 1990 to 2019 in both sexes. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for females has shown a stable trend in total CRC, and a downward trend in EOCRC since 2000. While the ASMR for males showed increasing trends in total CRC and EOCRC. In 2019, the highest incidence, prevalence, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs were all observed in the 65 to 69 age group, while the highest mortality was in the 70 to 74. By 2044, the incidence and deaths of CRC are expected to reach 1310 thousand and 484 thousand, respectively. For EOCRC, the incidence will peak at about 101 thousand around 2034, and the mortality will continuously decrease to a nadir at about 18 thousand around 2044.
Conclusion
Although the age-standardized incidence and mortality of total CRC and EOCRC in China will reach a plateau, the number of incident cases and deaths of CRC have been increasing in the last three decades and will continue to increase in the next 25 years.
Graphical Abstract
Data Sharing Statement
The data presented in this study are available from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/) and the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 Revision (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/).
Ethic Statement
The Institutional Review Board of the Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital of Zhejiang University determined that the study did not require approval because the data were publicly available. This study complied with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) recommendations.Citation55
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for providing the data for this article.
Author Contributions
All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.
Disclosure
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as potential conflicts of interest.