Temporal Trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Burden in China from 1990 to 2030 with Comparisons to Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States of America, and the World

Abstract

Purpose

To identify and predict the epidemiological burden and trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China and compare them globally.

Methods

We collected incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD from 1990 to 2019 in China, four developed countries and the world, from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of IBD increased in China, regardless of gender and age; decreased YLLs and increased YLDs caused a stable number of DALYs; the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased. In 2019, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were 3.01/100,000 person-years (/100,000) (95% UI: 2.59, 3.50), 47.06/100,000 (95% UI: 40.05, 54.99), 0.30/100,000 (95% UI: 0.24, 0.35), and 13.1/100,000 (95% UI: 10.29, 16.31), respectively; almost all disease burden data were higher in males. In 2017, the ASDR in different socio-demographic index provinces ranged from 24.62/100,000 (95% UI: 16.95, 33.81) to 63.97/100,000 (95% UI: 44.61, 91.48). When compared globally, the ASIR and ASPR in China had opposite trends and the highest AAPCs. In 2019, the ASIR and ASPR in China were in the middle of the world and lower than in some developed countries. The numbers and ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were expected to increase by 2030.

Conclusion

The IBD burden in China significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 and was expected to rise further by 2030. China had the world’s opposite and most dramatic trends in ASIR and ASPR from 1990 to 2019. Strategies should be adjusted to adapt to the significantly increased disease burden.

Keywords:

• inflammatory bowel disease
• China
• disease burden
• temporal trend
• projection

Data Sharing Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Global Health Data Exchange, at http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool.

Ethics Approval and Informed Consent

The GBD 2019 study is a publicly available database and all data were anonymous. Our study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Qilu Hospital of Shandong University with approval number KYLL-202011(KS)-239.

Acknowledgments

Xiaorong Yang and Xiaoyun Yang are co-corresponding authors of this paper. We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in various capacities.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant numbers: 2018YFB1307700), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant numbers: 82270570 and 82103912), and the Emergency and Critical Care Medicine Program of Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (No. 2021SDUCRCB003); and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M700080). The funders were not involved in the collection, analysis, or interpretation of data, or the writing or submitting of this report. The corresponding author had full access to all of the data and the final responsibility to submit it for publication.