Supervised Learning Based Systemic Inflammatory Markers Enable Accurate Additional Surgery for pT1NxM0 Colorectal Cancer: A Comparative Analysis of Two Practical Prediction Models for Lymph Node Metastasis

Abstract

Purpose

Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) after endoscopic resection is crucial in determining whether patients with pT1NxM0 colorectal cancer (CRC) should undergo additional surgery. This study was aimed to develop a predictive model that can be used to reduce the current likelihood of overtreatment.

Patients and Methods

We recruited a total of 1194 consecutive CRC patients with pT1NxM0 who underwent endoscopic or surgical resection at the Gezhouba Central Hospital of Sinopharm between January 1, 2006, and August 31, 2021. The random forest classifier (RFC) and generalized linear algorithm (GLM) were used to screen out the variables that greatly affected the LNM prediction, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to assess the accuracy of predictive models.

Results

Analysis identified the top 10 candidate factors including depth of submucosal invasion, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), platelet-to-neutrophil ratio(PNR), venous invasion, poorly differentiated clusters, tumor budding, grade, lymphatic vascular invasion, and background adenoma. The performance of the GLM achieved the highest AUC of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30 to 1.28) in the training cohort and robust AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.24) in the validation cohort. Meanwhile, the RFC exhibited a robust AUC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40 to 1.28) in the training cohort and a high AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.41 to 1.29) in the validation cohort. DCAs also showed that the RFC had superior predictive ability.

Conclusion

Our supervised learning-based model incorporating histopathologic parameters and inflammatory markers showed a more accurate predictive performance compared to the GLM. This newly supervised learning-based predictive model can be used to determine an individually tailored treatment strategy.

Keywords:

• colorectal cancer
• pT1NxM0
• lymph nodes metastasis
• prediction model
• machine learning
• random forest classifier
• generalized linear model

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank all patients and researchers who participated in this study. Meanwhile, the authors also thank the mother tongue polishing team for providing professional manuscript polishing services.

Disclosure

None of the authors have any conflicts of interest to declare.