A Prognostic Model for In-Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Pneumonia

Abstract

Purpose

To determine the utility of a novel serum biomarker for the outcome prediction of critically ill patients with pneumonia.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective analysis of critically ill patients was performed at an emergency department. The expression and prediction value of parameters were assessed. Binary logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the indicators associated with in-hospital mortality of pneumonia patients. The Last Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator was used to further determine the independent predictors, which were validated by multiple logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic curve was performed to assess their prediction values. A prognostic nomogram model was finally established for the outcome prediction for critically ill patients with pneumonia.

Results

Retinol-binding protein (RBP) was significantly reduced in non-survived and pneumonia patients. CURB-65 score, levels of RBP, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were associated with in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with pneumonia. Their combination was determined to be an ideal prognostic predictor (area under the curve of 0.762) and further developed into a nomogram prediction model (c-index 0.764).

Conclusion

RBP is a novel in-hospital mortality predictor, which well supplements the CURB-65 score for critical pneumonia patients.

Keywords:

• critical illness
• retinol-binding proteins
• mortality prediction

Data Sharing Statement

All original data used in the study have been de-identified and are available from the corresponding author Bing Wei on request.

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, and written informed consent was not deemed necessary due to the retrospective design. The patients’ data were anonymized or maintained with confidentiality. This study was conducted in compliance with the Declaration of Helsinki.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank for the helpful contributions of all staff of Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.