Construction of a Multi-Indicator Model for Abscess Prediction in Granulomatous Lobular Mastitis Using Inflammatory Indicators

Abstract

Background

Granulomatous lobular mastitis (GLM) is a chronic inflammatory breast disease, and abscess formation is a common complication of GLM. The process of abscess formation is accompanied by changes in multiple inflammatory markers. The present study aimed to construct a diagnosis model for the early of GLM abscess formation based on multiple inflammatory parameters.

Methods

Based on the presence or absence of abscess formation on breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 126 patients with GLM were categorised into an abscess group (85 patients) and a non-abscess group (41 patients). Demographic characteristics and the related laboratory results for the 9 inflammatory markers were collected. Logistics univariate analysis and collinearity test were used for selecting independent variables. A regression model to predict abscess formation was constructed using Logistics multivariate analysis.

Results

The univariate and multivariate analysis showed that the N, ESR, IL-4, IL-10 and INF-α were independent diagnostic factors of abscess formation in GLM (P<0. 05). The nomogram was drawn on the basis of the logistics regression model. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.890, which was significantly better than that of a single indicator and the sensitivity and specificity of the model were high (81.2% and 85.40%, respectively). These results predicted by the model were highly consistent with the actual diagnostic results. The results of this calibration curve indicated that the model had a good value and stability in predicting abscess formation in GLM. The decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated a satisfactory positive net benefit of the model.

Conclusion

A predictive model for abscess formation in GLM based on inflammatory markers was constructed in our study, which may provide a new strategy for early diagnosis and treatment of the abscess stage of GLM.

Keywords:

• granulomatous lobular mastitis
• abscess formation
• risk factors
• inflammation
• ROC curve
• diagnostic model

Acknowledgments

This paper was supported by grants from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (No.202040254).

Disclosure

The authors declare no conflicts of interest in this work.