Predictors of Mortality Among Children with Confirmed and Suspected Cases of COVID-19 in East Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increases rapidly and causes mortality in all groups, including children. However, the predictive risk factors of mortality among children remain inconclusive. This study aimed to analyse the predictors related to mortality among children with COVID-19.

Methods

Secondary data analysis was conducted using provincial COVID-19 data from April 2020 to May 2021. We selected 6441 children under age 18 to be included in this study. Chi-square and binary logistic regression were used to evaluate the predictors of mortality in children with COVID-19.

Results

This study showed that the prevalence of children who died COVID-19 was 2.7%. Age, case definition, treatment status, severity of illness, and travel history had a significant relationship with survival status in children with COVID-19. As the increasing age, the risk of death with COVID-19 will decrease [AOR=0.94; CI 95%=0.91–0.97]. Otherwise, suspected status [AOR=2.12; 95% CI=1.48–3.04], hospitalization with ventilators [AOR=22.25; 95% CI=5.73–86.42], severe illness [AOR=46.76; 95% CI=21.69–100.80], and travel history [AOR=1.78; 95% CI=1.22–2.60] were significantly related with an increased risk of death in children with COVID-19.

Discussion

Severe illness in children was the strongest predictor of mortality. Disease prevention and health promotion programs are the key to preventing hospitalizations in children and decreasing the mortality rate.

Keywords:

• child health
• COVID-19
• child mortality

Data Sharing Statement

The datasets analysed during the current study available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia through “Hibah Riset Mandat Top Tier” (Top Tier Mandate Research Grant) grant number [768/UN3.15/PT/2021].