Developing a Nomogram for Predicting Colorectal Cancer and Its Precancerous Lesions Based on Data from Three Non-Invasive Screening Tools, APCS, FIT, and sDNA

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting positive colonoscopy results using the data from non-invasive screening strategies.

Methods

The volunteers participated in primary colorectal cancer (CRC) screenings using Asia-Pacific colorectal screening (APCS) scoring, faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and stool deoxyribonucleic acid (sDNA) testing and underwent a colonoscopy. The positive colonoscopy results included CRC, advanced adenoma (AA), high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), and low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN). The enrolled participants were randomly selected for training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A model for predicting positive colonoscopy results was virtualized by the nomogram using logistic regression analysis.

Results

Among the 179 enrolled participants, 125 were assigned to training set, while 54 were assigned to validation set. After multivariable logistic regression was done, APCS score, FIT result, and sDNA result were all identified as the predictors for positive colonoscopy results. A model that incorporated the above independent predictors was developed and presented as a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram in the validation set was 0.768 (95% CI, 0.644–0.891). The calibration curve demonstrated a good agreement between prediction and observation. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve showed that the model achieved a net benefit across all threshold probabilities. The AUC of the prediction model for predicting positive colonoscopy results was much higher than that of the FIT + sDNA test scheme.

Conclusion

The nomogram for predicting positive colonoscopy results was successfully developed based on 3 non-invasive screening tools (APCS scoring, FIT and sDNA test).

Keywords:

• nomogram
• colorectal cancer
• primary screening
• faecal immunochemical testing
• stool deoxyribonucleic acid

Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

This study was approved by the ethics committee of the Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University (approval number: LS2021013) in accordance with Declaration of Helsinki. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants.

Acknowledgments

Special thanks go to Chen Xin for his participation in the early stages of the study and for his partial support in collecting sample data for this study.

Disclosure

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. LTGY23H240002.