COVID-19 in Shanghai: IPC Policy Exploration in Support of Work Resumption Through System Dynamics Modeling

Abstract

Purpose

It is unclear how and to what extent various infection prevention and control (IPC) policies affect the spread of an epidemic during work resumption. In order to assess the impact of IPC policies, this research addresses the results of a policy simulation in Shanghai, China, which estimates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under various IPC policies and offers evidence-based outcomes of work resumption policies for the world.

Materials and Methods

This simulation research is based on a system dynamics (SD) model that integrates IPC work resumption policies implemented in Shanghai into the classical susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) epidemiological model. Input data were obtained from official websites, the Baidu migration index and published literature. The SD model was validated by comparing results with real-world data.

Results

The simulations show that a non-quarantined and non-staged approach to work resumption (Policy 1) would bring a small secondary outbreak of COVID-19. The quarantined but non-staged approach (Policy 2) and the non-quarantined but staged approach (Policy 3) would not bring a secondary outbreak of COVID-19. However, they both would generate more newly confirmed cases than the staged and quarantined approach (Policy 4). Moreover, the 14-day quarantine policy alone appears to be more effective in reducing transmission risk than the staged work resumption policy alone. The combined staged and quarantined IPC policy led to the fewest confirmed cases caused by work resumption in Shanghai, and the spread of COVID-19 stopped (ie, the number of newly confirmed cases reduced to zero) at the earliest date.

Conclusion

Conservative IPC policies can prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19 during work resumption. The dynamic systems model designed in this study can serve as a tool to test various IPC work resumption policies, facilitating decision-making in responses to combating the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords:

• IPC policies
• work resumption
• COVID-19
• system dynamics
• SEIR

Acknowledgments

We wish to thank the members of the System Dynamics Chapter, Systems Engineering Society of China, who contributed their time, ideas, expertise, and experiences to this effort, including Guangle Yan and Linlin Wang. We thank David Whyte for proofreading portions of the manuscript, thank Luojia Dai for improving literature review, and thank Zhiling Dai and Lei Wang for verifying the obtained COVID-19 epidemic data. Special thanks are also extended to Dr. Eliot Rich, Associate Professor and Chair of Information Systems and Business Analytics, School of Business, University at Albany, who carefully reviewed this manuscript and improved presentation of the context.

Disclosure

The authors report no potential conflicts of interest for this work.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 18BGL235 and No. 20AZD059), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 20VYJ064 and No. 71432006), and Shanghai Jiao Tong University think tank leading research project (No. ZKYJ-2020014).