Survival status and predictors of mortality among adult Stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center, South west Ethiopia: A retrospective Cohort study

Abstract

Background

Stroke is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease death in sub-Saharan Africa and the second leading cause of mortality worldwide. In 2016, 6.23% of all fatalities in Ethiopia were stroke-related.

Objective

To assess survival status and predictors of mortality among adult stroke patients admitted to Jimma University Medical Center from April 1/2017 to March 31/2022.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 480 adult stroke patients selected by simple random sampling from patients admitted to the Jimma University Medical Center Stroke Unit from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2022. Data were extracted from May to June 2022 and entered Epi-data v.3.1 and analyzed by R v.4.2. The Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test was used to estimate survival time and to compare survival experience between categories of explanatory variables. The Cox regression model was computed to identify predictors of survival status in stroke patients. Then the 95% CI of the hazard ratio was set with corresponding p-value < 0.05 to declare statistical significance.

Results

During 4350 person-days of follow-up; 88 (18.33%) patients died; resulting in an incidence mortality of 20.23 per 1000 person-days, with a median survival time of 38 days. Glasgow coma score <8 on admission (AHR = 7.71; 95% CI: 3.78, 15.69), dyslipidemia (AHR = 3.96; 95% CI: 2.04, 7.69), aspiration pneumonia (AHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.23–4.26), and increased intracranial pressure (AHR = 4.27; 95% CI: 2.33, 7.81), were the independent predictors of the time until death.

Conclusion

The incidence of stroke mortality was higher at the seven and fourteen days. Glasgow Coma Scale, increased intracranial pressure, dyslipidemia, and aspiration pneumonia were independent predictors of mortality.

Keywords:

• stroke
• survival time
• predictors
• retrospective cohort
• JUMC
• Southwest Ethiopia

Abbreviations

AHR, Adjusted Hazard Ratio; BSc, Bachelor of Science; CVDs, Cardio-Vascular Disease; ECG, Electrocardiography; GCS, Glasgow Coma Scale; LMICs, Low and Middle-Income Countries; NCDs, Non-Communicable Diseases.

Data Sharing Statement

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on a reasonable request.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Jimma Medical Health Center, Medical ward coordinator and data collectors.

Author Contributions

All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Disclosure

The authors declare there is no conflict of interest in this work.