Violence Change and Cohort Trajectories: Baltimore Neighborhoods, 1990-2000¹

Abstract

Whereas the relationship between poverty and violence is incontrovertible in the American city, demographic relationships at the neighborhood level are relatively poorly understood. Patterns of violence and population change are examined at the census tract level in Baltimore, Maryland across the decade from 1990 to 2000. Aggravated assault and homicide are combined and used as a composite indicator of serious violence. Population data are examined for selected tracts representative of anomalous outliers experiencing population decline but increased violence. The data are broken down into five-year cohorts represented graphically at their beginning (1990) and end (2000) points. The analysis indicates that some neighborhoods have experienced collapse of youthful cohorts. Normally, a decline in youthful population would predict a reduction in crime, but this analysis suggests that at the neighborhood scale criminogenic processes may affect neighborhoods somewhat independently of their demographic attributes. Most notably, population decline at the neighborhood level may be accompanied by crime increase, contrary to macrolevel theoretical expectation.

Keywords:

• violence
• population
• cohort trajectories
• Baltimore
• census tracts