Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Change: The Time Dimension in Segregation

Abstract

This nationwide study of neighborhood racial and ethnic transitions examines the varieties and dynamics of U.S. neighborhood change between 1990 and 2000. The authors use innovative and robust cluster analysis techniques to classify U.S. census tracts in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. We interpret the resulting clusters according to their central tendencies and explore inter-metropolitan and regional patterns in relative cluster frequencies. Finally, we estimate multilevel logistic regression models of the covariates of cluster membership. We conclude that within cities, trends toward greater and potentially stable diversity in some neighborhoods co-exist with continuing White flight and re-segregation in other local areas. Further, at both the metropolitan and neighborhood levels increasing diversity is associated with the significant presence of multiple minorities, while white flight and re-segregation are associated with the rapid growth of either blacks or Hispanics. This variability in transition outcomes can at least in part be attributed to demographic structure at the metropolitan scale and to the distance from established minority enclaves of the neighborhoods themselves.