Transmission of U.S. Financial Shocks to Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Claims by U.S. Banks

Abstract

I analyze how U.S. financial shocks and the U.S. business cycle, as well as the business cycles of local economies, can help explain changes in international lending by U.S. banks. I find that during the financial crisis of 2007-8, U.S. financial shocks were transmitted to emerging market economies (EMEs) via the international lending activities of U.S. banks. However, the results suggest that U.S. banks' lending activities alone cannot explain the transmission of the financial shocks to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. In addition, I find that the U.S. business cycle significantly affected U.S. bank loans to EMEs but that it did not significantly affect the banks' claims on developed countries. I also find that the business cycles in the EMEs were not the main drivers of U.S. banks' cross-border lending; in contrast, the macroeconomic conditions in the developed countries were important drivers of the cross-border lending by the banks.

Keywords:

• financial crisis
• financial shock
• global banks
• international transmission