Are predictive biomarkers of toxicity worth having? An economic model

Abstract

1. In this paper we model the cost-benefit of excluding populations at risk through predictive toxicity biomarkers and diagnostics.

2. False positives/ negatives inherent in predictive markers and the frequency and nature of adverse events determine whether biomarkers are beneficial and economically viable.

3. We present a model that takes these and other factors into account using data largely in line with real world cases.

Keywords::

• Toxicology
• predictive biomarkers
• economic model
• pharmaceutical industry
• adverse drug reactions