An Inexpensive Predictor of Student Performance on Licensure Examinations

Abstract

The construction of a 420 question comprehensive final examination over the basic medical sciences has been described. Correlation analysis of the relationship of sophomore medical students' performance on this examination to their performance on the NMBE-I over 5 years of data demonstrated correlations from 0.62 to 0.86. Performance proved a better predictor of NBME-I scores than did performance in the preclinical years courses.

One Medical School class was studied in more detail. Among other data, their performance on the course final was more predictive of their performance on NBME-I than either their GPA in basic science courses or their Medical College Aptitude Test (MCAT) scores. Final examination performance was also more predictive of their performance on the NBME-II than either preclinical course performance or MCAT scores.