Risk factors in surgically treated aortic and mitral valve disease

Abstract

Risk factors in simultaneous aortic and mitral valve replacement were studied in 78 patients. Risk factors for early mortality, according to a stepwise logistic regression model, were male sex, concomitant heart surgery and prior valve replacement. For low-output syndrome, the major morbid event, the risk factors were endocarditic etiology, concomitant heart surgery and prior valve replacement. Survival curves were used to estimate univariate risk factors for total mortality. With a multivariate procedure, using the Cox regression model, two covariates were pinpointed as independent prognostic factors in total mortality, viz. mitral regurgitation and concomitant heart surgery. The Cox model also showed the two covariates ischemic heart disease and endocarditic etiology to be risk factors in late mortality. Predicted 3-year survival was estimated with different combinations of these risk factors. The results were compared with earlier reports.

Key Words:

• double valve replacement
• risk factors
• logistic model
• hazard model