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Abstract
We aimed to assess the capacity of biochemical markers of bone turnover (BTMs) to predict bone loss, osteoporosis (OP), and osteoporotic fractures. We randomly selected 400 individuals (age 40–79 years in 1993; 50 of each gender and age stratum) from a list of registered residents. In the years 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2003, bone mineral density (BMD) of the spine and hip were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BTMs assessed at baseline were serum intact osteocalcin (OC), total OC, bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, C-terminal propeptide of type I procollagen, N-terminal propeptide of type I procollagen (PINP), C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen generated by matrix metalloproteinase, C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (beta-CTX), N-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (NTX), urinary pyridinoline, and deoxypyridinoline (DPD). For 307 completers, multivariate analysis after adjusting for confounders revealed that serum PINP levels in men [hazard ratio (HR) 2.80, P < 0.05] and serum PINP (HR 1.65, P < 0.05), beta-CTX (HR 1.80, P < 0.001), NTX (HR 1.96, P < 0.01), and urinary DPD levels (HR 1.40, P < 0.05) in women were significantly related to the occurrence of spinal OP. In addition to adjustment for the baseline status of BMD, i.e., osteopenia or normal range, PINP, beta-CTX, and NTX in women could significantly predict the future occurrence of spinal OP. BTMs were not significant predictors of bone loss, femoral OP, or osteoporotic fractures. In conclusion, various BTMs in women can predict the occurrence of spinal OP.