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Abstract
Background : Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa.
Objectives : The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex.
Methods : We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003–2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex.
Results : Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0–29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths.
Conclusions : Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue.
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the INDEPTH Network. We thank Joacim Rocklöv, Yazoumé Yé, Rainer Sauerborn, Sari Kovats, David Hondula, and Martin Bangha who facilitated at INDEPTH workshops in Nouna, Burkina Faso, and Accra, Ghana. This work would not have been done without climate data that were provided by the Meteorological Department of Kenya and mortality data collected under the longitudinal NUHDSS. This work was partly undertaken within the Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, with support from FAS, the Swedish Council for Working Life, and Social Research (grant no. 2006-1512). We acknowledge the contributions of Dr. Alex Ezeh and Dr. Eliya Zulu to the conceptualization of the NUHDSS.
