Convergence in fertility of South Africans and Mozambicans in rural South Africa, 1993–2009

Abstract

Background : Although there are significant numbers of people displaced by war in Africa, very little is known about long-term changes in the fertility of refugees. Refugees of the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) settled in many neighbouring countries, including South Africa. A large number of Mozambican refugees settled within the Agincourt sub-district, underpinned by a Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (AHDSS), established in 1992, and have remained there. The AHDSS data provide a unique opportunity to study changes in fertility over time and the role that the fertility of self-settled refugee populations plays in the overall fertility level of the host community, a highly relevant factor in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa.

Objectives : To examine the change in fertility of former Mozambican self-settled refugees over a period of 16 years and to compare the overall fertility and fertility patterns of Mozambicans to host South Africans.

Design : Prospective data from the AHDSS on births from 1993 to 2009 were used to compare fertility trends and patterns and to examine socio-economic factors that may be associated with fertility change.

Results : There has been a sharp decline in fertility in the Mozambican population and convergence in fertility patterns of Mozambican and local South African women. The convergence of fertility patterns coincides with a convergence in other socio-economic factors.

Conclusion : The fertility of Mozambicans has decreased significantly and Mozambicans are adopting the childbearing patterns of South African women. The decline in Mozambican fertility has occurred alongside socio-economic gains. There remains, however, high unemployment and endemic poverty in the area and fertility is not likely to decrease further without increased delivery of family planning to adolescents and increased education and job opportunities for women.

• fertility decline
• education
• adolescent fertility
• birth intervals
• labour force participation
• contraception
• socio-economic development
• refugees
• adaptation
• Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site

Acknowledgements

We thank Christie Sennott and John B. Casterline for comments on earlier drafts. Versions of the study were presented at the 2011 INDEPTH Scientific Conference, Maputo, and at the 2012 Population Association of America Meeting, San Francisco. The AHDSS has been funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK (grants 058893/Z/99/A; 069683/Z/02/Z; 085477/Z/08/Z), with support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, National Institute on Aging (NIA) of the NIH, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, USA. The School of Public Health and Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, and the Medical Research Council, South Africa, have provided valuable support.

Notes

^‡There are family and kinship ties between present-day South Africans and Mozambicans that extend back for generations. Many thousands of Mozambicans entered South Africa as refugees during and after the civil war during the 1970s and into the 1980s. Most who settled in the vicinity of Agincourt sub-district chose to remain and this was facilitated by common kinship and family ties. Today, a high proportion of these former Mozambican refugees are eligible for and have accessed South African ID documents and enjoy all the rights of South African citizenship. Their children, born in South Africa, are regarded as fully South African.

¹The proportion of Mozambican women in the population remained about one-third throughout the study period. Since 1994 some Mozambicans have migrated voluntarily into the area and are included in the analysis with Mozambican refugees. However the percentage of in-migrants was minimal for the majority of the study period. Until 2007 less than 4% of the Mozambican population in the AHDSS were in-migrants. By 2009, 17.6% of the Mozambican population in the AHDSS were in-migrants.

²Every second year starting in 2001, an asset survey has been conducted in all households of the Agincourt surveillance site. A set of these household assets can be used to develop a wealth (SEP) index for each household 13. The sum of these assets was used to create an absolute asset count for each household. This score was then used to define three socio-economic strata based on tercile cut-offs and categorised: more poor, poor, less poor 14.