A method to determine the theoretical maximum error growth in atmospheric models

Abstract

For a fixed forecast range and initial state of an atmospheric model, we present a practical method to determine the error of this initial state which maximizes the ratio of final to initial error. The method uses the adjoint model concept. Numerical results for a simple barotropic model are given. We show on a sample of real cases that. there is a negative correlation between the above ratio and a least square forecast skill. We discuss this result and the use of the method for a priori estimation of the quality of numerical forecasts.