Intercomparison of three long-range trajectory models applied to Arctic haze

Abstract

Three long-range trajectory models which have been applied to Arctic haze problems were compared. These models employ different parameterizations of vertical motions, and are based on different meteorological analyses. Median horizontal displacements between 5-day trajectory endpoints were mostly in the 800—1000 km range. Model sensitivity to the meteorological data was shown to contribute a substantial component to the overall uncertainty. Based on these comparisons, we estimate that the usefulness of trajectory models after 5 days is limited to the identification of distant source regions with horizontal dimensions on the order of 1000 km.