Multi‐attribute analysis of investments risk alternatives in construction

Abstract

In project development it is hardly possible to get exhaustive and accurate information. As a result, the situations occur, the consequences of which can be very damaging to the project. Inaccurate evaluation of the strategy related to capital investment and project implementation is one of the reasons why such estimates are not required in practice. Instead, a classification approaches may be used for this purpose. The decision‐making process, based on the established risk assessment principles expressed in linguistic terms, requires qualitative judgement and experiential knowledge of the construction experts. Presented structured and realistic methods deals systematically with different risk management situations and assist the investors in reaching the correct risk assessment of possible alternatives will be of great value. This paper presents a methods of multiattribute comparativite analysis (CLARA and SAW methods) of variants of investment classified risks in construction. A practical case to illustrate how the methods works is presented.

Santrauka

Šiame straipsnyje nagrinejamos daugiatiksles analizes metodu taikymo galimybes. Svarbus investiciju efektyvumo garantas yra nuodugni investiciniu projektu analize ir vertinimas. Tai leidžia pagal tam tikrus kriterijus nustatyti investavimo variantu efektyvuma. Vertinimo kriterijai turi būti grindžiami tiek investicini projekta igyvendinančio subjekto, tiek investuotojo interesais. Analizuojant investicinius procesus yra susiduriama su ivairaus pobūdžio informacija ‐ kokybine ir kiekybine. Šiame straipsnyje yra siūlomi du metodai, analizuojantys (ivertinantys) investicine rizika ‐ SAW ir CLARA metodai. Pateikti metodu pritaikymo rezultatai.

Keywords:

• expert system
• decision‐making
• verbal analysis methods
• methods of solving multic‐riteria classification problems

Reikšminiai žodžiai:

• ekspertines sistemos
• sprendimu priemimas
• verbalines analizes metodai
• CLARA
• SAW