The problem of modelling a trunk air route network

Abstract

In this work we developed a fuzzy neural network-based model of the conditions for the existence of air routes, i.e. the rules underlying the emergence, existence and elimination of air routes (direct links between cities). The model belongs to the class of information models: the existence or non-existence of an air route is considered dependent on a complex of parameters. These parameters characterise the transport link, as well as the generational and target capabilities of the connected cities. The model was constructed using genetic algorithm techniques and self-organising Kohonen maps (implemented by software features of the STATISTICA package), as well as software tools of the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and the Neural Network Toolbox of the MatLab development environment. The model is used to forecast the development of the topology of the network. The forecast is a necessary component of long-term forecasts of demand in the aircraft market.

Keywords:

• air route network
• conditions for the existence of air routes
• direct link
• fuzzy modelling
• network development forecast