The critical analysis of scenario construction in the Polish foresight initiatives

Abstract

The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.

Keywords:

• foresight
• future anticipation
• scenario method
• triangulation
• wild cards

JEL Classification:

• E27
• O21
• O22
• O31
• O32

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Joanicjusz Nazarko

Joanicjusz NAZARKO is a Professor at the Bialystok University of Technology in Poland. He serves as Dean of the Faculty of Management and Head of the Department of Business Informatics and Logistics. He has published over 200 publications and a number of expert assessments, projects and technical and economic elaborations. He was a member of the Steering Committee of the National Foresight Program “Poland 2020”. He has served as an expert of the EU 7th Framework Program. He is an IEEE senior member. He is a recognised expert in the fields of forecasting, simulation, foresight and benchmarking.

Anna Kononiuk

Anna KONONIUK is a Researcher in the Chair of Business Informatics and Logistics at the Management Faculty of Bialystok University of Technology, Poland. She holds a PhD in Management from the Warsaw University. She was one of the initiators of the Support Group in the National Foresight Program “Poland 2020”. Currently, she is involved as a member of key research teams in foresight projects of regional, trade and national type. Her scientific research interests are forecasting, time series analysis, social network analysis and foresight methods with an emphasis on scenario analysis.