A study on the development of a cost model based on the owner's decision making at the early stages of a construction project

Abstract

Decision making at the early stages of a construction project has a significant impact on the project, and various scenarios created based on the owner's requirements should be considered for the decision making. At the early stages of a construction project, the information regarding the project is usually limited and uncertain. As such, it is difficult to plan and manage the project (especially cost planning). Thus, a cost model that could be varied according to the owner's requirements was developed. The cost model that was developed in this study is based on the case‐based reasoning (CBR) methodology. The model suggests cost estimation with the most similar historical case as a basis for the estimation. In this study, the optimization process was also conducted, using genetic algorithms that reflect the changes in the number of project characteristics and in the database of the model according to the owner's decision making. Two optimization parameters were established: (1) the minimum criteria for scoring attribute similarity (MCAS); and (2) the range of attribute weights (RAW). The cost model proposed in this study can help building owners and managers estimate the project budget at the business planning stage.

SANTRUKA

Sprendimu priemimas ankstyvuoju statybos projekto etapu turi didele itaka projektui ir ivairiems scenarijams, remiantis savininko reikalavimais, kuriu turi būti laikomasi priimant sprendimus. Ankstyvaisiais statybos projekto etapais informacijos apie projekta paprastai yra nedaug ir ji nera patikima. Del to sudetinga planuoti ir taisyti projekta (ypač išlaidu planavima). Todel šio tyrimo metu buvo sukurtas kainos modelis, kuris galetu būti keičiamas atsižvelgiant i savininko poreikius. Kainos modelis, kuris buvo sukurtas šio tyrimo metu, remiasi atveju analize, pagrista argumentu metodika (angl. CBR). Modelis siūlo samatinius skaičiavimus su panašiausiais ankstesniais atvejais, kurie yra skaičiavimo pagrindas. Šio tyrimo metu procesas buvo optimizuotas naudojant genetinius algoritmus, rodančius projektu skaičiaus kitima tam tikro modelio duomenu bazeje pagal savininko priimamus sprendimus. Buvo nustatyti du optimizavimo parametrai: 1) minimalūs kriterijai veiksniu panašumui ivertinti (angl. MCAS); 2) veiksniu svoriu vertinimo intervalas (angl. RAW). Kainos modelis, pasiūlytas šiame tyrime, gali padeti pastatu savininkams ir valdytojams ivertinti projekto biudžeta verslo planavimo etape.

Keywords:

• Case‐based reasoning
• Cost planning
• Optimization