Projected Changes in NO_x Emissions from Lightning as a Result of 2000–2050 Climate Change

Abstract

Lightning is one of the most important natural sources of atmospheric NO_x. The authors investigate the 2000-2050 changes in NO_x emissions from lightning using the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3. Projected changes in climate over 2000-2050 are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The global NO_x emission from lightning is simulated to be 4.8 Tg N in present day and to increase by about 16.7% over 2000-2050 as a result of the future climate change. The largest present-day emissions and climate-induced changes are found in the upper troposphere in the tropics. Regionally in eastern China (20-55°N, 98-125°E), NO_x emissions from lighting is simulated to be 0.3 Tg N (6.3% of the global total emission) in present day and to increase by 26.7% over 2000-2050. The simulated changes in NO_x from lightening correspond well with the projected future changes in convective precipitation.

Keywords:

• NO_x
• lightning
• climate change