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Abstract
The rock partridge has undergone a decline throughout its entire distribution area, including the population of the central Italian Apennine Mountains. Areas of suitable habitat for this species have been reduced due to landscape fragmentation and the dynamics of domestic animal and wildlife management. The present study was conducted in the Province of Rieti, Lazio Region. Geographical and land use predictors were evaluated in a GIS environment to identify the most relevant factors influencing the presence of rock partridge during the nesting period. Logistic regression was then implemented to create a model, characterised by a good level of adequacy, for predicting rock partridge nesting site habitat characteristics. Correct predictions of presence and absence were made in 65.2% and 98.6% of cases, respectively. The ROC value was 0.771, which is statistically significant (P<0.001). The results show that, on a local scale, slope (log), distance from forests, and the presence of bare rocks were statistically significant factors. On a landscape scale, the percentage of forests, the presence of sparse vegetation (over 60%), and a negative Mean Shape Index (MSI) were found to be statistically significant.