An assessment of technologies for reducing regional short-lived climate forcers emitted by ships with implications for Arctic shipping

Abstract

Evaluating potential cost–effectiveness of abatement technologies in parallel with emerging scientific evidence is important for better management decisions related to integrated environmental problems. This article evaluates six black carbon (BC) emissions reduction technologies for marine engines, including the net effect on a set of short-lived climate forcers from marine diesel combustion. Technologies evaluated include slide valves, water-in-fuel emulsion, diesel particulate filters, low-sulfur fuel, emulsified fuel and sea water scrubbing. Cost–effectiveness values for these technologies implemented alone or in combination are reported in terms of US$/metric ton (mt) for BC, particulate matter and CO₂ equivalents (CO₂eq), with the latter including CO₂ emitted directly due to parasitic fuel use and both warming and cooling short-lived climate forcers affected by control technology performance. The article finds that the most cost-effective strategy evaluated (i.e., the least US$/mt CO₂eq) occurs through a combination of technologies that achieve an approximate 60% BC reduction. Using the example of Arctic shipping, the cost to achieve this 60% BC reduction target may be approximately US$8–50 million per year, avoiding approximately 9–70 million metric tons CO₂eq per year. Uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is used to demonstrate the robustness of these results.

Financial & competing interests disclosure

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.