The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2012:

Abstract

Background

Over the past decade, there have been resurgences and large-scale outbreaks of mumps worldwide. Little evidence is available on the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps. We aimed to explore the effects of meteorological factors on mumps incidence. Methods: A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the association between meteorological factors and the mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005–2012.

Results

Nonlinear relationships between meteorological factors, except sunshine hours, and mumps incidence were observed. The relative risks (RRs) of mean temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure were 1.81 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41 to 2.32), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.59), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95) comparing the 99th percentile to the median of their own, respectively. For wind velocity, the RR was 0.70 (95%CI, 0.54 to 0.91) comparing the 1st percentile to the median. The hot effect and cold effect were larger in females than in males, and the hot effect increased with age.

Conclusions

Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and atmospheric pressure might be important predictors of the mumps incidence. Tropical cyclone caused a higher increase in mumps cases. Our findings highlight the need to strengthen the awareness of using protective measures during typhoon days and allocating more attention to the susceptible populations during the summer. The two-dose regimen of mumps vaccine should be included in the National Immunization Program schedule, and the catch-up vaccination campaigns should be promoted among adults.

Keywords: :

• meteorological factor
• mumps
• relationship
• distributed lag non-linear model
• China

10.4161/hv.29286

Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest

The author states he has no conflict of interest

Acknowledgments

We highly appreciate the help from the physicians from sentinel surveillance hospitals and Guangzhou CDC for providing data of mumps cases and China Meteorological Administration for providing meteorology data. We also thank the Project For Key Medicine Discipline Construction Of Guangzhou Municipality (2013–2015–07) for their contribution in the study.

Funding

This work was supported by a grant from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology (2012B091100045).