The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Abstract

During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic nearly every decision associated with new vaccine development and dissemination occurred from the Spring of 2009, when the novel virus first emerged, to the Fall of 2009, when the new vaccines started reaching the thighs, arms and noses of vaccinees. In many ways, 2009 served as a crash course on how mathematical and computational modeling can assist all aspects of vaccine decision-making. Modeling influenced pandemic vaccine decision-making, but not to its fullest potential. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic demonstrated that modeling can help answer questions about new vaccine development, distribution, and administration such as (1) is a vaccine needed, (2) what characteristics should the vaccine have, (3) how should the vaccine be distributed, (4) who should receive the vaccine and in what order and (5) when should vaccination be discontinued? There is no need to wait for another pandemic to enhance the role of modeling, as new vaccine candidates for a variety of infectious diseases are emerging every year. Greater communication between decision makers and modelers can expand the use of modeling in vaccine decision-making to the benefit of all vaccine stakeholders and health around the globe.

Acknowledgements

The University of Pittsburgh MIDAS National Center of Excellence H1N1 influenza modeling team, led by Donald S. Burke, MD, Dean of the Graduate School of Public Health, consisted of Kristina M. Bacon, MPH, Rachel R. Bailey, MPH, Shawn T. Brown, Ph.D., John J. Grefenstette, Ph.D., Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, Margaret A. Potter, JD, MS, Roni Rosenfeld, Ph.D., Ronald E. Voorhees, MD, MPH, Ann E. Wiringa, MPH, Shanta M. Zimmer, MD and Richard K. Zimmerman, MD, MPH. From September 2009 to October 2009, Drs. Lee and Brown were “embedded” in ASPR. This work was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) grant 1U54GM088491-0109, and the Vaccine Modeling Initiative (VMI) through support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders had no role in the preparation, review or approval of the manuscript.

Figures and Tables

Table 1 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic timeline