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Abstract
Using epidemiological data, this paper discusses the social impact of HIV in Papua New Guinea over the next two decades. It shows that the country will be facing an adult prevalence rate of nearly 11% by 2025, and that over 300,000 adults will die of AIDS related illness. HIV will impact particularly at the family and community levels, and women may bear a disproportionate burden of that impact. Immense pressure will be placed on families to cope with illness and death – both in terms of caring work and coping financially. This, in turn, will place pressure on village systems. These systems will be undermined by the loss of social capital that comes with widespread illness and the negative impact of the epidemic on the agriculture, education and health sectors. The major governance and security impacts will also be felt at village level – how to sustain viable local governance systems in the face of HIV.
