Scenario planning as policy instrument: Four scenarios for biotechnology in Europe

Summary

Scenario planning has long been the domain of firms. Recently scenario planning has also been recognized as a valuable policy instrument, which has led to some interesting developments. We explore the possibilities of scenario planning as a policy instrument and the required adaptations of the scenario method. Basic differences between scenario planning in firms and in policy deal with the diffusion of actors and interests, the decision making structure and the need to develop commitment for the outcomes of the process. We developed and evaluated a distant approach, i.e. without plenary sessions, which has been applied in the area of biotechnology in Europe. We will discuss the various steps in the process — gathering, feedback and convergence of information — as well as the outcomes and add conclusions about the viability of scenario planning as an innovation policy instrument.

Keywords:

• innovation policy
• scenario planning
• biotechnology
• European R&D