Technology foresight: Philosophy and principles

Summary

A number of strategic planning tools can contribute to building links between government, academia and business and to identifting priority areas for investment. Forecasting tools rely on trend data extrapolations or application of models to develop a unique future. They assume that the future is an extension of the present and that the economy, society and technology will continue in a steady pattern. The risks associated with unforeseen events are usually minimized or not considered.

The Third Generation definition of Foresight by APEC CTF in Bangkok proposes that: “Foresight involves systematic attempts to look into the future of science, technology, society and the economy, and their interactions, in order to promote social, economic and environmental benefit”. Economic, social and cultural contexts of different countries and of different industries can influence the choice of Foresight methodology used; combinations of methodologies can be more effective, e.g. scenario and Delphi. The experience of APEC CTF is that Foresight can be an extremelyeffective tool for strategic technology planning at multi-economy, national and industry levels.

The primary rationale is that emerging generic technologies (e.g. biotechnology, nanotechnology, genome science) are likely to have a revolutionary effect on industries, the economy, society and the environment. If one can identift and examine such emerging technologies at an early stage, governments and industry can target resources on the strategic research areas needed to ensure rapid and effective development and also can examine the ethical, social and legal issues arising from application of the technologies.

Key Words:

• technology forecasting
• social impacts
• economic impacts
• cultural impacts
• technology policy
• foresight techniques