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Applied Economics Volume 41, 2009 - Issue 16: The applied economics of monetary policy
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Original Articles

Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union

David-Jan Jansen Economics and Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsCorrespondence[email protected]
&
Jakob De Haan Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; CESifo, Munchen, Germany
Pages 1995-2003 | Published online: 08 Feb 2010

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Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2017) The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches. Applied Economics 49:11, pages 1114-1131.
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Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein. (2011) What matters when? The impact of ECB communication on financial market expectations. Applied Economics 43:28, pages 4289-4309.
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Articles from other publishers (46)

Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu. (2022) Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 11:3, pages 33-57.
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MIKAEL APEL, MARIANNA BLIX GRIMALDI & ISAIAH HULL. (2021) How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 54:5, pages 1459-1490.
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Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl. (2021) Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 68:3, pages 298-321.
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Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance. (2021) The signaling effects of central bank tone. European Economic Review 133, pages 103684.
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Guillermo Peña. (2020) Monetary Policy after the Great Moderation. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 9:3, pages 5-26.
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THIERRY WARIN & WILLIAM SANGER. (2020) THE SPEECHES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’s PRESIDENTS: AN NLP STUDY. Global Economy Journal 20:02, pages 2050009.
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Hamza Bennani, Nicolas Fanta, Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath. (2020) Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB. Journal of International Money and Finance 104, pages 102167.
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Michail E. Petsalakis, Ahmed M. Khalid & Gamini Premaratne. (2021) Peripheral Banking System Fragility and its Effect on EMU Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Journal of Business and Economic Analysis 03:03, pages 197-227.
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Michail E. Petsalakis, Ahmed M. Khalid & Gamini Premaratne. (2022) Peripheral Banking System Fragility and its Effect on EMU Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Journal of Business and Economic Analysis 03:03, pages 197-227.
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Jonne O. Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu. (2019) Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 8:2, pages 5-32.
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Domenico Lombardi, Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand. (2019) GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS AT THE EFFECTIVE LOWER BOUND: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE. Contemporary Economic Policy 37:1, pages 102-120.
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Alexander Jung. (2018) Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 65:1, pages 39-67.
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Vincenzo Farina, Giuseppe Galloppo & Daniele A. Previati. 2018. Contemporary Issues in Banking. Contemporary Issues in Banking 91 121 .
Matthieu Picault & Thomas Renault. (2017) Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication. Journal of International Money and Finance 79, pages 136-156.
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Paul Hubert. (2017) Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 17:1.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2015) Central bank communication in the financial crisis: Evidence from a survey of financial market participants. Journal of International Money and Finance 59, pages 166-181.
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Paul Hubert. (2015) ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions. Journal of Forecasting 34:7, pages 574-587.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2015) Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting: How do financial market participants process central bank news?. Journal of Banking & Finance 59, pages 27-37.
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Aleš Bulíř, Martin Čihák & Kateřina Š Šmídkova. (2013) Writing Clearly: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication. German Economic Review 14:1, pages 50-72.
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Ingo Fender, Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2012) Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance 36:10, pages 2786-2794.
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SANDRA SCHMIDT & DIETER NAUTZ. (2012) Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44:2-3, pages 323-340.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2011) Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication. Southern Economic Journal 78:1, pages 131-148.
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Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob De Haan. (2010) Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB. Review of World Economics 147:1, pages 41-58.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2010) Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?. Journal of Macroeconomics 32:4, pages 1014-1024.
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Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen. 2010. The European Central Bank at Ten. The European Central Bank at Ten 119 141 .
Carlo Rosa. (2009) Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words. Economic Notes 38:1-2, pages 39-66.
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Armando Marozzi. (2021) The ECB's Tracker: Nowcasting the Press Conferences of the ECB. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Dinh-Vinh Vo. (2019) The Response of Exchange Rate to Central Bank Communication: A Textual Analysis Approach. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Matthieu Picault & Thomas Renault. (2017) Words are Not All Created Equal: A New Measure of ECB Communication. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Domenico Lombardi, Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand. (2017) Government Bond Yields at the Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Paul Hubert & Labondance Fabien. (2017) Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Aleksandra Halka. (2015) Lessons from the Crisis. Did Central Banks Do Their Homework?. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2016) Central Bankss Predictability: An Assessment by Financial Market Participants. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2014) The (Home) Bias of European Central Bankers: New Evidence Based on Speeches. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref
Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2014) Self-Monitoring or Reliance on Newswire Services: How Do Financial Market Participants Process Central Bank News?. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref
Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2014) Central Bank Communication in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from a Survey of Financial Market Participants. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref
Mikael Apel & Marianna Grimaldi. (2012) The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref
Ingo Fender, Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2012) Daily CDS Pricing in Emerging Markets Before and During the Global Financial Crisis. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Marcel Bluhm. (2011) Investigating the Monetary Policy of Central Banks with Assessment Indicators. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz. (2011) Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Menno H. Middeldorp. (2011) Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Menno H. Middeldorp. (2011) FOMC Communication Policy and the Accuracy of Fed Funds Futures. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Menno H. Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz. (2011) Central Bank Transparency and the Crowding Out of Private Information in an Experimental Asset Market. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz. (2010) Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2010) Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref
Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch. (2010) Do Federal Reserve Communications Help Predict Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions?. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Crossref

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