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Journal of the American Statistical Association Volume 85, 1990 - Issue 410
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Applications and Case Studies

The Relationship between the Length of the Base Period and Population Forecast Errors

Stanley K. Smith Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611
&
Terry Sincich College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620
Pages 367-375 | Received 01 Nov 1988, Published online: 28 Feb 2012

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Bledar A. Konomi, Huiyan Sang & Bani K. Mallick. (2014) Adaptive Bayesian Nonstationary Modeling for Large Spatial Datasets Using Covariance Approximations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 23:3, pages 802-829.
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Beth Osborne Daponte, JosephB. Kadane & LaraJ. Wolfson. (1997) Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population, 1977–1990. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92:440, pages 1256-1267.
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AndrewM. Isserman. (1993) The Right People, the Right Rates: Making Population Estimates and Forecasts with an Interregional Cohort-Component Model. Journal of the American Planning Association 59:1, pages 45-64.
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Articles from other publishers (15)

Phillip Granberry, Christina Kim, Matthew Resseger, Jonathan Lee, Alvaro Lima & Kevin Kang. (2018) Who Is At Risk of Migrating? Developing Synthetic Populations to Produce Efficient Domestic Migration Rates Using the American Community Survey. Urban Science 2:3, pages 80.
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Mario Reinhold & Stephan L. Thomsen. (2015) Subnational Population Projections by Age: An Evaluation of Combined Forecast Techniques. Population Research and Policy Review 34:4, pages 593-613.
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Jack Baker, Adélamar Alcántara, Xiaomin Ruan, Daren Ruiz & Nathan Crouse. 2015. Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography. Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography 63 79 .
Jack Baker, Adélamar Alcántara, Xiaomin Ruan, Kendra Watkins & Srini Vasan. (2014) Spatial weighting improves accuracy in small-area demographic forecasts of urban census tract populations. Journal of Population Research 31:4, pages 345-359.
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Malou Van Greuningen, Ronald S Batenburg & Lud FJ Van der Velden. (2013) The accuracy of general practitioner workforce projections. Human Resources for Health 11:1.
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Jack Baker, Adelamar Alcantara, Xiaomin Ruan, Kendra Watkins & Srini Vasan. (2013) A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry). Population Research and Policy Review 32:6, pages 919-942.
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Adrian E. Raftery, Jennifer L. Chunn, Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková. (2013) Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography 50:3, pages 777-801.
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Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. SwansonStanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. Swanson. 2013. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections 323 371 .
Stefan RayerStanley K. Smith. (2010) Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts. Journal of Planning Education and Research 30:2, pages 147-161.
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Stefan Rayer. (2008) Population Forecast Errors. Journal of Planning Education and Research 27:4, pages 417-430.
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Jeff Tayman, Stanley K. Smith & Jeffrey Lin. (2007) Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models. Population Research and Policy Review 26:3, pages 347-369.
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Dennis A. Ahlburg. 2001. Principles of Forecasting. Principles of Forecasting 557 575 .
J. Scott Armstrong. 2001. Principles of Forecasting. Principles of Forecasting 217 243 .
David A. Swanson & Jeff Tayman. (1995) Between a rock and a hard place: The evaluation of demographic forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 14:2, pages 233-249.
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Stanley K. Smith & Terry Sincich. (1991) An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors. Demography 28:2, pages 261-274.
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