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International Interactions

Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations

Volume 48, 2022 - Issue 4: Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition

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The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model

Cornelius FritzLMU MunichCorrespondence[email protected]

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7781-223X View further author information

Marius MehrlLMU Munich

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5825-9256 View further author information

Paul W. ThurnerLMU MunichView further author information

Göran KauermannLMU MunichView further author information

Pages 778-799 | Published online: 29 Nov 2021

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https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.1993210
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Citations (4)

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Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi. (2022) Lessons from an escalation prediction competition. International Interactions 48:4, pages 521-554.
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Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann. (2022) United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition. International Interactions 48:4, pages 860-896.
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Articles from other publishers (2)

Marius Mehrl, Daniel Seussler & Paul W. Thurner. (2023) Sharing rivals, sending weapons: Rivalry and cooperation in the international arms trade, 1920–1939. The Review of International Organizations.
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Marius Mehrl. (2023) Rage and the Machines? Force Mechanization and Violence against Civilians. Journal of Global Security Studies 8:1.
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