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International Interactions
Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations
Volume 48, 2022 - Issue 4: Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition
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Articles

Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence

Hannes Muellera IAE (CSIC), Barcelona School of EconomicsCorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7667-3971View further author information
ORCID Icon &
Christopher Rauhb University of CambridgeView further author information
Pages 579-596 | Received 16 Dec 2020, Accepted 25 Mar 2022, Published online: 10 May 2022

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Read on this site (3)

Johannes Bracher, Lotta Rüter, Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch & Melanie Schienle. (2023) Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions. International Interactions 49:6, pages 989-1004.
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Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi. (2022) Lessons from an escalation prediction competition. International Interactions 48:4, pages 521-554.
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Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann. (2022) United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition. International Interactions 48:4, pages 860-896.
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Articles from other publishers (8)

Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Hannes Mueller, Javier J. Pérez & Christopher Rauh. (2024) The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting. Latin American Journal of Central Banking 5:4, pages 100130.
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Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh. (2024) Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements. Economic Policy.
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Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh & Ben Seimon. (2024) Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics. Data & Policy 6.
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Daniel Racek, Paul W. Thurner, Brittany I. Davidson, Xiao Xiang Zhu & Göran Kauermann. (2024) Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war. International Journal of Forecasting 40:1, pages 373-391.
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Christine BellChristine Bell. 2024. PeaceTech: Digital Transformation to End Wars. PeaceTech: Digital Transformation to End Wars 113 130 .
Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Maximilian Nagl & Julian Walterskirchen. (2023) Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction. Political Analysis 31:4, pages 481-499.
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Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre & Maxine Leis. (2023) Predicting armed conflict using protest data. Journal of Peace Research.
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Cristian-Camilo Pinto-Muñoz, Jhon-Alex Zuñiga-Samboni & Hugo-Armando Ordoñez-Erazo. (2023) Machine Learning Applied to Gender Violence: A Systematic Mapping Study. Revista Facultad de Ingeniería 32:64, pages e15944.
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