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Mathematical Population Studies
An International Journal of Mathematical Demography
Volume 5, 1995 - Issue 3: Population Projections: Simple VS. Complex Models
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Original Articles

Simple versus complex models: Evaluation, accuracy, and combining

Dennis A. Ahlburg Industrial Relations Center and Center for Population Analysis and Policy, University of Minnesota; Program on Population, East‐West Center, 1777 East‐West Road, Honolulu, HI, 96848, USA
Pages 281-290 | Received 20 Feb 1995, Published online: 21 Sep 2009

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Salvatory R. Kessy, Michael Sherris, Andrés M. Villegas & Jonathan Ziveyi. (2022) Mortality forecasting using stacked regression ensembles. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2022:7, pages 591-626.
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Articles from other publishers (33)

Colin Small & J. Eric Bickel. (2022) Model Complexity and Accuracy: A COVID-19 Case Study. Decision Analysis 19:4, pages 354-383.
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Jana Gerlach, Paul Hoppe, Sarah Jagels, Luisa Licker & Michael H. Breitner. (2022) Decision support for efficient XAI services - A morphological analysis, business model archetypes, and a decision tree. Electronic Markets 32:4, pages 2139-2158.
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Tugba Memisoglu Baykal, H. Ebru Colak & Cebrail Kılınc. (2022) Forecasting future climate boundary maps (2021–2060) using exponential smoothing method and GIS. Science of The Total Environment 848, pages 157633.
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Daniel Redondo-Sánchez, Miguel Rodríguez-Barranco, Alberto Ameijide, Francisco Javier Alonso, Pablo Fernández-Navarro, Jose Juan Jiménez-Moleón & María-José Sánchez. (2021) Cancer incidence estimation from mortality data: a validation study within a population-based cancer registry. Population Health Metrics 19:1.
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Amirhossein Fathi, Mohammad Salehi, Mohsen Mohammadi, Yasmin Rahimof & Parisa Hajialigol. (2021) Cooling/heating load management in educational buildings through course scheduling. Journal of Building Engineering 41, pages 102405.
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Fatai Anifowose, Christopher Ayadiuno & Faisal Reshedan. (2019) Feature Selection Based Hybrid Machine Learning Approach to Formation Cementation Factor Prediction. Feature Selection Based Hybrid Machine Learning Approach to Formation Cementation Factor Prediction.
Fatai Anifowose, Christopher Ayadiuno & Faisal Rashedan. (2019) Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Based Feature Selection Approach for Carbonate Reservoir Cementation Factor Prediction. Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Based Feature Selection Approach for Carbonate Reservoir Cementation Factor Prediction.
Fatai Anifowose, Christopher Ayadiuno & Faisal Rashedan. (2019) Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Based Feature Selection Approach for Carbonate Reservoir Cementation Factor Prediction. Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Based Feature Selection Approach for Carbonate Reservoir Cementation Factor Prediction.
Eric SilvermanJakub Bijak, Daniel Courgeau, Robert Franck & Eric Silverman. 2018. Methodological Investigations in Agent-Based Modelling. Methodological Investigations in Agent-Based Modelling 167 187 .
Alan Marshall, Sarah Christison & Ludi Simpson. (2017) Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time. Statistical Journal of the IAOS 33:3, pages 683-700.
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Daniel Courgeau, Jakub Bijak, Robert Franck & Eric Silverman. 2017. Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies. Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies 29 51 .
Tom Wilson. (2015) Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review 35:2, pages 241-261.
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Arvydas Jadevicius & Simon Huston. (2015) Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models. Journal of Property Investment & Finance 33:4, pages 337-361.
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Tom Wilson. (2015) New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts. Population, Space and Place 21:4, pages 335-353.
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Stefan Rayer. 2015. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences 162 169 .
Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu & Zhenglian WangYi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu & Zhenglian Wang. 2014. Household and Living Arrangement Projections. Household and Living Arrangement Projections 1 15 .
Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. SwansonStanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. Swanson. 2013. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections 323 371 .
Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. SwansonStanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman & David A. Swanson. 2013. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections. A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections 301 322 .
John T. MobleyTeresa B. CulverRobert W. Burgholzer. (2012) Understanding Precipitation Fidelity in Hydrological Modeling. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 17:12, pages 1315-1324.
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David A. Swanson & Jeff TaymanDavid A. Swanson & Jeff Tayman. 2012. Subnational Population Estimates. Subnational Population Estimates 267 302 .
David A. Swanson, Jeff Tayman & T. M. Bryan. (2011) MAPE-R: a rescaled measure of accuracy for cross-sectional subnational population forecasts. Journal of Population Research 28:2-3, pages 225-243.
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Jakub BijakJakub Bijak. 2011. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View 91 116 .
Jakub BijakJakub Bijak. 2011. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View 237 250 .
Jakub BijakJakub Bijak. 2011. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View 3 13 .
Lee Hachadoorian, Stuart R. Gaffin & Robert Engelman. 2011. Human Population. Human Population 13 25 .
Stefan RayerStanley K. Smith. (2010) Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts. Journal of Planning Education and Research 30:2, pages 147-161.
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H. Booth & L. Tickle. (2011) Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods. Annals of Actuarial Science 3:1-2, pages 3-43.
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Stefan Rayer. (2008) Population Forecast Errors. Journal of Planning Education and Research 27:4, pages 417-430.
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Stefan Rayer. (2007) Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter?. Population Research and Policy Review 26:2.
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Heather Booth. (2006) Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting 22:3, pages 547-581.
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Dennis A. Ahlburg. 2001. Principles of Forecasting. Principles of Forecasting 557 575 .
Stanley K. Smith. (1997) Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models. International Journal of Forecasting 13:4, pages 557-565.
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Salvatory KESSY, Michael Sherris, Andrés Villegas & Jonathan Ziveyi. (2021) Mortality Forecasting Using Stacked Regression Ensembles. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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