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Original Articles

Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?

Pages 421-441 | Published online: 22 Sep 2010

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

Read on this site (8)

Jamie S. Hughes, Angelica Sandel, Logan A. Yelderman & Victoria Inman. (2021) Beliefs about an Offender’s Capacity to Be Rehabilitated: Black Offenders Are Seen as More Capable of Change. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 43:6, pages 406-422.
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Nai Ming Tsang. (2013) Surprise in Social Work Education. Social Work Education 32:1, pages 55-67.
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Ulrich Hoffrage & Rüdiger Pohl. (2003) Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory 11:4-5, pages 329-335.
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Ralph Hertwig, Carola Fanselow & Ulrich Hoffrage. (2003) Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past. Memory 11:4-5, pages 357-377.
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Lioba Werth & Fritz Strack. (2003) An inferential approach to the knew-it-all-along phenomenon. Memory 11:4-5, pages 411-419.
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Melvin Mark, Renee Reiter Boburka, Kristen Eyssell, Laurie Cohen & Steven Mellor. (2003) "I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability. Memory 11:4-5, pages 443-454.
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Rüdiger Pohl, Markus Eisenhauer & Oliver Hardt. (2003) SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias. Memory 11:4-5, pages 337-356.
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Articles from other publishers (75)

Pietro Crescenzo, Giuseppe Ritella, Nadia Sansone, Sefa Bulut, Susanna Annese & Maria Beatrice Ligorio. (2023) Students’ Emotions in Socio-constructivist Approaches: Comparing Experiences at Different Italian School Levels. Human Arenas.
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Norbert Hartkamp. (2023) „… anders, als erwartet …““... not as expected ...”. Organisationsberatung, Supervision, Coaching 30:3, pages 355-368.
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Ciara M. Greene, Linda J. Levine, Elizabeth F. Loftus & Gillian Murphy. (2023) Just as I expected? Hindsight bias for the outcome of a national referendum is moderated by outcome valence and surprise . Applied Cognitive Psychology.
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Julien Geissmar, Thomas Niemand & Sascha Kraus. (2023) Surprisingly unsustainable: How and when hindsight biases shape consumer evaluations of unsustainable and sustainable products. Business Strategy and the Environment.
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April Bleske-Rechek, Michaela M. Gunseor & Kai Nguyen. (2023) I “knew” they wouldn’t last: Hindsight bias in judgments of a dating couple. Social Psychological Bulletin 18.
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Michael Hallsworth. (2023) A manifesto for applying behavioural science. Nature Human Behaviour 7:3, pages 310-322.
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Anna Ilona Roberts & Sam George Bradley Roberts. (2022) Intentional gesturing increases social complexity by allowing recipient's understanding of intentions when it is inhibited by stress. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377:1860.
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Sam G. B. Roberts, Robin I. M. Dunbar & Anna I. Roberts. (2022) Communicative roots of complex sociality and cognition: neuropsychological mechanisms underpinning the processing of social information. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377:1860.
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Nikolay R. Rachev & Mila Petrova. (2022) How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Antigovernment Protests in Bulgaria. The American Journal of Psychology 135:2, pages 179-193.
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D. A. Keatley & D. D. Clarke. (2020) Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis: Part of the Timeline Toolkit for Criminal Investigation. Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology 37:1, pages 1-8.
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Magali Boespflug, Claire Lefort, Cécile McLaughlin & Petra Pelletier. (2021) Vivre ensemble au temps de la COVID-19 : repenser l’intergénérationnelLiving together at the time of COVID-19: rethinking intergenerational. Trayectorias Humanas Trascontinentales:10.
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Jieying Chen, Lok Ching Kwan, Lok Yeung Ma, Hiu Yee Choi, Ying Ching Lo, Shin Yee Au, Chi Ho Tsang, Bo Ley Cheng & Gilad Feldman. (2021) Retrospective and prospective hindsight bias: Replications and extensions of Fischhoff (1975) and Slovic and Fischhoff (1977). Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 96, pages 104154.
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Marcel Meuer, Steffen Nestler & Aileen Oeberst. (2021) Debiasing Media Articles–Reducing Hindsight Bias in the Production of Written Work. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 10:3, pages 435-443.
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Lisa K. Son, Seok Sung Hong, Lu Han, Yoonhyoung Lee & Tae Hoon Kim. (2021) Taking a naïve other's perspective to debias the hindsight bias: Did it backfire?. New Ideas in Psychology 62, pages 100867.
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Christoph Engel, Sebastian Kube & Michael Kurschilgen. (2021) Managing expectations: How selective information affects cooperation and punishment in social dilemma games. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 187, pages 111-136.
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Molly S. Quinn, Katherine Campbell & Mark T. Keane. (2021) Do we “fear for the worst” or “Hope for the best” in thinking about the unexpected?: Factors affecting the valence of unexpected outcomes reported for everyday scenarios. Cognition 208, pages 104520.
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Siba Ghrear, Klint Fung, Taeh Haddock & Susan A.J. Birch. (2020) Only Familiar Information is a “Curse”: Children’s Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know. Child Development 92:1, pages 54-75.
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Aileen Oeberst, Ina von der Beck, Ulrike Cress & Steffen Nestler. (2019) Wikipedia outperforms individuals when it comes to hindsight bias. Psychological Research 84:6, pages 1517-1527.
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Don A. Moore & Derek Schatz. (2020) Overprecision increases subsequent surprise. PLOS ONE 15:7, pages e0227084.
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Christine M. McDermott, Monica K. Miller & Alicia DeVault. (2020) They should have known: Hindsight and outcome biases in child abduction cases. Journal of Applied Social Psychology 50:7, pages 430-438.
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Michael D Cohen & Aaron Rapport. (2019) Strategic surprise, nuclear proliferation and US foreign policy. European Journal of International Relations 26:2, pages 344-371.
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Rebecca Maguire & Phil Maguire. 2020. Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences 5331 5333 .
Judith Gerten & Sascha Topolinski. (2019) Shades of surprise: Assessing surprise as a function of degree of deviance and expectation constraints. Cognition 192, pages 103986.
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Harry L. Hom Jr. & Abigail L. Van Nuland. (2019) Evaluating scientific research: Belief, hindsight bias, ethics, and research evaluation. Applied Cognitive Psychology.
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Edward L. Munnich, Meadhbh I. Foster & Mark T. Keane. (2019) Editors’ Introduction and Review: An Appraisal of Surprise: Tracing the Threads That Stitch It Together. Topics in Cognitive Science 11:1, pages 37-49.
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Meadhbh I. Foster & Mark T. Keane. (2019) The Role of Surprise in Learning: Different Surprising Outcomes Affect Memorability Differentially. Topics in Cognitive Science 11:1, pages 75-87.
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Jeffrey Loewenstein. (2019) Surprise, Recipes for Surprise, and Social Influence. Topics in Cognitive Science 11:1, pages 178-193.
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Rainer Reisenzein, Gernot Horstmann & Achim Schützwohl. (2019) The Cognitive-Evolutionary Model of Surprise: A Review of the Evidence. Topics in Cognitive Science 11:1, pages 50-74.
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Edward Munnich & Michael A. Ranney. (2018) Learning From Surprise: Harnessing a Metacognitive Surprise Signal to Build and Adapt Belief Networks. Topics in Cognitive Science.
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Daniel M. Bernstein, Ragav Kumar, Michael E. J. Masson & Daniel J. Levitin. (2018) Fluency misattribution and auditory hindsight bias. Memory & Cognition 46:8, pages 1331-1343.
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Aileen Oeberst, Ina von der Beck, Mitja D. Back, Ulrike Cress & Steffen Nestler. (2017) Biases in the production and reception of collective knowledge: the case of hindsight bias in Wikipedia. Psychological Research 82:5, pages 1010-1026.
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David KeatleyDavid Keatley. 2018. Pathways in Crime. Pathways in Crime 125 136 .
Lisa Schubert, Anita Körner, Berit Lindau, Fritz Strack & Sascha Topolinski. (2017) Open-Minded Midwifes, Literate Butchers, and Greedy Hooligans—The Independent Contributions of Stereotype Valence and Consistency on Evaluative Judgments. Frontiers in Psychology 8.
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Ina von der Beck, Aileen Oeberst, Ulrike Cress & Steffen Nestler. (2017) Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures. Applied Cognitive Psychology 31:3, pages 315-325.
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Russell Haines, Jill Hough & Douglas Haines. (2017) A metacognitive perspective on decision making in supply chains: Revisiting the behavioral causes of the bullwhip effect. International Journal of Production Economics 184, pages 7-20.
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Emily Spencer, Kimberly Page & Matthew G. Clark. (2016) Managing Frequent Relocation in Families? Considering Prospect Theory, Emotional Framing, and Priming. Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal 45:1, pages 77-90.
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Marret K. Noordewier, Sascha Topolinski & Eric Van Dijk. (2016) The Temporal Dynamics of Surprise. Social and Personality Psychology Compass 10:3, pages 136-149.
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Rebecca Maguire & Phil Maguire. 2016. Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences 1 3 .
Mauricio Palmeira, Gerri Spassova & Hean Tat Keh. (2015) Other-serving bias in advice-taking: When advisors receive more credit than blame. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 130, pages 13-25.
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Meadhbh I. Foster & Mark T. Keane. (2015) Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty. Cognitive Psychology 81, pages 74-116.
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Sascha Topolinski & Fritz Strack. (2015) Corrugator activity confirms immediate negative affect in surprise. Frontiers in Psychology 6.
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Meadhbh I. Foster & Mark T. Keane. (2015) Surprise as an ideal case for the interplay of cognition and emotion. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38.
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Darwin Choi & Sam K. Hui. (2014) The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 107, pages 614-629.
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Aileen Oeberst, Ina von der Beck & Steffen Nestler. (2014) Reading about explanations enhances perceptions of inevitability and foreseeability: a cross-cultural study with Wikipedia articles. Cognitive Processing 15:3, pages 343-349.
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Edgar R. Rodríguez Ramírez. (2014) Industrial design strategies for eliciting surprise. Design Studies 35:3, pages 273-297.
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Torun Lindholm, Rickard L. Sjöberg & Amina Memon. (2014) Misreporting signs of child abuse: The role of decision-making and outcome information. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 55:1, pages 1-9.
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Nakeung Lee. (2013) Judgment of Likelihood of Risky Events and Hindsight Bias: The effects of expectation-outcome inconsistency in hypothetical design. Ewha Journal of Social Sciences 29:null, pages 363-382.
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Andrew J. Evelo & Edie Greene. (2013) Judgments about Felony-Murder in Hindsight. Applied Cognitive Psychology 27:3, pages 277-285.
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Neal J. Roese & Kathleen D. Vohs. (2012) Hindsight Bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science 7:5, pages 411-426.
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Daniel M. Bernstein, Alexander Maurice Wilson, Nicole L. M. Pernat & Louise R. Meilleur. (2012) Auditory hindsight bias. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 19:4, pages 588-593.
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Jennelle E. Yopchick & Nancy S. Kim. (2011) Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach. Cognitive Processing 13:1, pages 63-72.
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Mark V. Pezzo. (2011) Hindsight Bias: A Primer for Motivational Researchers. Social and Personality Psychology Compass 5:9, pages 665-678.
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Dustin P. Calvillo & Dayna M. Gomes. (2011) Surprise influences hindsight–foresight differences in temporal judgments of animated automobile accidents. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 18:2, pages 385-391.
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Melissa A. Z. Marks & Hal R. Arkes. (2010) The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23:2, pages 131-160.
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Maciej Dymkowski. (2010) Afterthoughts on biases in history perception. Polish Psychological Bulletin 41:2.
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Florian Fessel, Kai Epstude & Neal J. Roese. (2009) Hindsight bias redefined: It’s about time. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 110:1, pages 56-64.
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Lawrence J. Sanna, Lindsay A. Kennedy, Edward C. Chang & Paul M. Miceli. (2009) RETRACTED: When thoughts don’t feel like they used to: Changing feelings of subjective ease in judgments of the past. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 45:4, pages 940-946.
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Timothy D. Wilson & Daniel T. Gilbert. (2008) Explaining Away: A Model of Affective Adaptation. Perspectives on Psychological Science 3:5, pages 370-386.
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Mark V. Pezzo & Jason. W. Beckstead. (2007) The effects of disappointment on hindsight bias for real‐world outcomes. Applied Cognitive Psychology 22:4, pages 491-506.
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Hartmut Blank, Steffen Nestler, Gernot von Collani & Volkhard Fischer. (2008) How many hindsight biases are there?. Cognition 106:3, pages 1408-1440.
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Steffen Nestler, Hartmut Blank & Gernot von Collani. (2008) Hindsight Bias and Causal Attribution. Social Psychology 39:3, pages 182-188.
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Susan A.J. Birch & Paul Bloom. (2016) The Curse of Knowledge in Reasoning About False Beliefs. Psychological Science 18:5, pages 382-386.
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Susan A. J. Birch & Daniel M. Bernstein. (2007) What Can Children Tell Us About Hindsight Bias: A Fundamental Constraint on Perspective–Taking?. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 98-113.
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Jochen Musch & Thomas Wagner. (2007) Did Everybody Know It All Along? A Review of Individual Differences in Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 64-82.
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Lawrence J. Sanna & Norbert Schwarz. (2007) Metacognitive Experiences and Hindsight Bias: It's Not Just the Thought (Content) That Counts!. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 185-202.
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Patrick A. Müller & Dagmar Stahlberg. (2007) The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias: A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 165-184.
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Mark V. Pezzo & Stephanie P. Pezzo. (2007) Making Sense of Failure: A Motivated Model of Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 147-164.
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Hartmut Blank & Steffen Nestler. (2007) Cognitive Process Models of Hindsight Bias. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 132-146.
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Hartmut Blank, Jochen Musch & Rüdiger F. Pohl. (2007) Hindsight Bias: On Being Wise After the Event. Social Cognition 25:1, pages 1-9.
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Norbert Schwarz, Lawrence J. Sanna, Ian Skurnik & Carolyn Yoon. 2007. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 39. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 39 127 161 .
Lawrence J. Sanna & Norbert Schwarz. (2016) Metacognitive Experiences and Human Judgment. Current Directions in Psychological Science 15:4, pages 172-176.
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Hartmut Blank & Steffen Nestler. (2006) Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. British Journal of Social Psychology 45:1, pages 149-160.
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Lisa L. Koonce, Cassie Mongold & Laura Quaid. (2022) Judgments about the Quality of Loans and Loan Originators under Expected versus Incurred Loss Accounting. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Elizabeth A Gilbert. (2012) Cultural Differences in Counterfactual Thinking and the Hindsight Bias. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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Darwin Choi & Sam K. Hui. (2012) The Role of Surprise: Understanding Over- and Underreactions Using In-Play Soccer Betting. SSRN Electronic Journal.
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